I use to take the psychologist experiments for grant. They are scientific proved as experiment goes. They I come across the idea that they are dealing with human being and the nature of human being is very complex and not always under the same condition as the lab experiments when scientists had them carried out. I was recalled the first part of the thesis that human being tend to “platonicize” event and thing. I.e they like to put order into chaos.
This leads to the problem of predilection ignoring Black Swan phenomenon. This is something kind of circular argument. Since the author is also a human, so he also falls into this trap. He uses all the psychological experiments to back up his argument is an example of putting order in chaos. But he is the only few that not forgetting the Black Swan can take place in the unknown future. Talking about psychological experiment, I recall the movie of Jason Bounce as a victim of psychological experiment known as “Manchurian candidate” experiment.
The subject in the experiment is shocked with electricity many time to brainwash everything he had known during training to be a hit man, and would later carry out the job on cue. If he was caught after carrying out the assassination, he would not remember who he is and when and who had trained him to do the killing. This is also reported on history channel as part of the JFK assassination conspiracy.
The theory accuses Lee Harvey Oswald was this kind of Manchurian candidate. The Sirhan Sirhan was thought to be the same kind of subject during the RFK assassination. It also dawns on me that the statement one often sees in any investment prospectus that past performance is no guarantee for future return. This is the corner stone of investment theory that coincides with the Black Swan theory in essence.
The past evidences are good as long as there is nothing in the future show up contradicting them. This is what the Black Swan theory put in a familiar term.
This is not what the people pushing for more government involvement in economics and technologies development for a nation. This is what in the past countries in Europe and North America had been doing and what the current developing countries and Nordic European countries are doing. This is also the thesis of the “Bad Samaritans” by C.H. Chang trying to get across.
However, there is also a statement in Chang’s book that there is a chance that all these efforts come to naught. The last statement is in line with the Black Swan theory. The former part is not. This is presented in a way by many economics development theorists as a sure thing in many books.
The latest one is the book entitled “Innovation Nations” by John Kao I happen to come across in library today. He uses nations such as Singapore, Finland, India, China, Taiwan as examples for the thesis. This is a theme that has been around for many years when people calling for more government subsidies in R&D, education, picking winner and looser in business, etc.
This is still true in USA when Pentagon subsidizes many technology development in private sector as well as in universities.
I also come across the book “Merchant of death” by Douglas Farah and Stephen Braun in library. This is a book about the Russian arm dealer by the name Viktor Bout. He is selling arms and trafficking arms for governments of the world, this is including US government. This is why no one can apprehend him so far. I heard this book on one day last week on Terry Gross show.
I was paying any attention to the part why he is no arrested and still stay in business. A scan of the book reveals the reason. Since so many governments around the world need his service. What a bunch of hypocrisy. As long as it is transporting arms for “peace keeping” and “spreading democracy” it is ok.
This is a reflection of the schizophrenic nature of the human mind set. It is so complex and not as a matter of black-and-white. “Arsenals of Folly: The making of nuclear arms race” is another interesting book by Richard Rhodes. It reveals the fact that Gorbachev is very focusing on improving the living standard of the Russian people even at the expense of the military might of Russian.
Reagan has the same mind set and that is why he signs the treaty at Reykjavik summit. Paul Nitze advised pocketing Gorbachev’s offer at oct, 86 without offering concession. Albert Wohlstetter was Richard Perle and wolfowitz mentor. Nuke War is not a Black Swan, is it? It is definitely a Black Swan for the money managers on Wall Street if it break out among nuke powers in the world.
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